Off to the Races!- Breaking News in North Carolina

The most confusing wing of a political party is the North Carolina Democratic Party.

Why do I say that?

Because they have yet to realize that they need to capitalize on their party's momentum and get Richard Burr out of the United States Senate. You may remember in my last blog post when I mentioned that Mike McIntyre was the party's best known potential candidate? Well, he decided to decline to run today. That's right, a man who polled within 5 points of the incumbent with a full 16 months before the election decided NOT to run.

In fact, the primary is in 10 months and there are TWO announced Democratic candidates, neither of whom are considered serious candidates or have even held elected office. The list of Democrats who have declined to run pretty much includes almost every prominent Democrat in the state. Former State Senator Cal Cunningham, State Senator (and current chair of the Duke University Board of Trustees) Dan Blue, Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall are the only prominent Democrats who have yet to make a decision.

Here are some facts about these candidates:

• Marshall and Blue have already made failed attempts at the Democratic NOMINATION for the Senate.
  
• Recent polls have Burr ahead of Marshall 43%-35%
• Foy may be hurt by his public opposition to gun control and being mayor of the city that Sen. Jesse Helms once said a wall should be built around in order to contain its liberalism.
  
• There's nothing too bad about Cunningham: He left the North Carolina Senate in 2002 because of partisan redistricting, joined the military and served two active duty tours in Iraq. He served as a lawyer and was deployed to serve as legal counsel. He's also only 35. The downside is that he has only two years of political experience, which could prove to be a non-factor given that the last Democratic senator to occupy Burr's seat had no experience whatsoever. Before knowing anything about his political beliefs, he looks like the most viable remaining candidate IF he can gain name recognition. The most recent poll that pairs him with Burr has him losing 46%-27%. Granted this poll was done in February but I can't see much of a change happening since then.

Note that none of these people have announced yet, they are merely doing what McIntyre was doing prior to today, "considering." They could very well turn the opportunity down and continue in their current careers.

How vulnerable is Richard Burr? A recent poll done by Public Policy Polling showed that only 34% of North Carolinians approve of the job that Burr is doing with 35% disapproving and the rest unsure. In a race between Burr and a "Democratic opponent," the Democrat leads 41%-38%.

Of course, it's worth mentioning that Kay Hagan similarly denied plans to run against Elizabeth Dole before ultimately announcing her candidacy on October 30, 2007. In fact, it took a whole 3 and a half weeks for Hagan to change her mind. Maybe the prominent North Carolina Democrats playing the same game this time. If they are then they are wasting valuable fundraising time and time to gain more name recognition. In a hotly contested race, time is valuable. A concept seemingly lost on the North Carolina Democrats.

Been a busy week for me, I'll try to get the South Carolina/Florida edition of "Off to the Races!" up by the end of the week. Let me know what you think of the circumstances surrounding the North Carolina Senate race. Maybe I'm just confused because I decided to write a blog entry at midnight.

Off to the Races!

In 2010, the Democrats hope to build on their momentum by capturing more Senate seats to add to their 60-seat majority. Given the current state of the national GOP, that seems somewhat likely. However, is it as likely as we think? Could the Republican start their comeback in 2010? Well, let's take a look at a couple of states with Republican incumbents (or retiring Republicans) and see how it's looking:

North Carolina: The Democrats are hoping to unseat Senator Richard Burr in 2010 and continue to build on their momentum in the Tar Heel State. They did after all manage to capture the state for the first time since 1976 (and only the second time since 1968). Democrats have historically done well in North Carolina on a state level, the state has only had one two term Republican governor in its history (and he was elected for the first time in 1984, riding the coattails of Ronald Reagan).

The seat occupied by Burr has seen quite a bit of turnover since the retirement of Democratic Senator Sam Ervin in 1974 with Burr as the 7th Senator to occupy that seat in just 35 years. Of the seven Senators to occupy the seat, two were Democrats (Terry Sanford and John Edwards). It's worth nothing that since Ervin's retirement, no one has won re-election to his seat.

One hinderance to the Democrats could prove to be Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating. It currently sits at just 25%. Her popularity was caused by some controversal budget cuts that she had to make in order to keep the state functioning and the diversion of funds from the North Carolina Education Lottery away from education and into the general state budget in order to help cover expenses. The lottery is extremely controversial in North Carolina and was only passed in 2000 because of a promise that it would help fund schools. Perdue's popularity could prove to be a problem for Democrats throughout North Carolina.

Another hinderance could be the on-going investigation into former Governor Mike Easley's potential abuse of power in getting his wife Mary a lucrative job at North Carolina State University and his potential use of taxpayer dollars to fund lucrative trips (he traveled WITH his wife unlike his neighbor to the south). A grand jury recently convened to investigate Easley's dealings.

Also a hinderance is the fact that NOBODY of note is running against Richard Burr. The Democrats have yet to name a big name challenger and the top 5 choices for the national Democrats have all shown little interest. Even favorite Heath Shuler denied any interest in running. While there are candidates in the race, almost all of them lack name recognition. Of course, it's worth nothing that Kay Hagan was just a state senator with no name recognition who ended up defeating Elizabeth Dole by 9 points. The biggest name mulling a run at the Senate seat is Rep. Mike McIntyre of the 7th Congressional District. However, while extremely popular in southeastern N.C., he lacks name recognition statewide. Kay Hagan proved that name recognition isn't everything so it'll be interesting to see if anyone can duplicate what she pulled off in 2008.

Verdict: The Democrats stand a chance in the Tar Heel State if they can distance themselves from Governors Perdue and Easley. It would be wise of them to go ahead and rally behind a candidate because none of the announced candidates have name recognition and with the Democrats no longer as popular in NC as they once were, name recognition and the building of trust between the candidate and the voters will be extremely important.

New Hampshire: Historically a Republican stronghold, the Granite State has trended Democratic recently starting with John Kerry winning the state in 2004 (the only formerly Bush state to switch parties). In 2006, the momentum really picked up as Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter defeated Republican incumbents to become New Hampshire's two United States Representatives and the Democrats even took control of the New Hampshire House of Representatives for the first time since 1923.

Governor John Lynch enjoys great popularity throughout the state, the latest polls have his approval rating at 63% so he will certainly be no problem to any potential Democratic Senators.

With incumbent Judd Gregg retiring, this becomes an open seat. As of now, Democratic congressman Paul Hodes of the 2nd Congressional District and former Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte are the leading candidates in their parties. Ayotte presents a great challenge to Hodes as she is popular statewide and could potentially reverse the momentum of the Republicans in the state. The New Hampshire Republican Party recently put former Governor John H. Sununu in charge in hopes of doing just that. This will be Sununu's first election as party chair so it'll be interesting to see if he has any effectiveness.

Recent polls have shown that a large number of voters remain undecided in a Ayotte/Hodes race. A poll conducted by Research 2000 showed Ayotte leads Hodes 39%-38% with 21% of the electorate undecided.

Verdict: This is a wide open race. Both candidates have name recognition so the Democrats in NH aren't fighting the same battle as the Democrats in NC. With a popular governor and increasingly Democratic populace, it'll be Hodes' challenge to try to keep the wave of momentum that he rode into the House going and let it carry him to the Senate. If Ayotte wins this race, it could mark the end of the Democratic wave and the start of a Republican revival. The Senate race in New Hampshire will certainly be one to watch.

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I'll possibly do more of these in future. I may use different states or possibly continue to update you guys on the North Carolina and New Hampshire Senate races. If you have any suggestions, post them in the comments section.

UPDATE- I've decided to do different states each post until I've completed all of the Republican held seats. Then I may either switch to Democrats or just do updates. Next up will be South Carolina and Florida. Any comments about my analysis are welcome.

Thought of the day.

After watching the first two days of the Sotomayor hearings and in preparation of its last day today, I am left with one clear thought: If I hear one more question about her "wise Latina" remark, I'm going to punch the dumb republican cracker who asks it.