Insider sources tell LGB that initial sample-based projections of the paper ballots in the Trustee election have Asch trailing by more than 20 points. Because paper ballots compose a third of overall ballots, Asch would have to pull in a substantial portion of the electronic ballots (more than 55%) in order to prove victorious.
While I have always been a supporter of Joe and the kind of critical eye he could bring to the board, it looks like Replogle (and the unopposed Krondrake) will be the next Trustees. Additionally, in the Association of Alumni election, it looks like the "Dartmouth Undying" slate will edge out the "Dartmouth United" one.
We will post more on the election outcomes as the story develops
UPDATE: Because alumni casting paper ballots are believed to be older and more 'conservative' -- in the Dartmouth politics sense of the word (e.g. favoring parity) -- we believe that Joe Asch would need to lead in this group. The fact that he is down 2-1 in initial projections for paper ballots makes his victory rather difficult.
UPDATE 2: The Dartmouth has picked up our story but does not offer any new information.